As can be seen from the figure above, the price trend of domestic DMF market this year is basically similar to that of 2014. At the beginning of March, driven by the continuous rise of methanol, the upstream raw material, the cost support is strong. After most of the downstream slurry plants are put into operation, the overall load is on the rise, the demand growth is expected to be strong, and the market confidence is supported. The domestic DMF price has been significantly increased, with the cumulative increase of 300-400 yuan / ton. But after entering April to may, as the downstream demand turns weak again, the traditional sales off-season comes, and the market enters the channel of shock downward. Throughout the first half of the DMF market trend, as the main upstream raw material, methanol fluctuation has a lower impact on the price of DMF, DMF market mainly follows the upstream. And the pressure of supply and demand continues to drag down the market, becoming one of the main reasons for the downward trend of the market.

From the supply side, in 2014, the total capacity of DMF in China was nearly 1.24 million tons / year, and the actual production increased by 100000 tons / year compared with 2013, mainly the 100000 tons unit of Luxi Chemical industry which was put into production in March 2014. In 2015, no new DMF device was put into operation in China, and the overall production capacity remained unchanged. From the maintenance situation of DMF manufacturers in the first half of the year, the 100000 ton DMF unit in Yuanxing, Inner Mongolia has been in the shutdown state since the end of September 2014, but it has not been restarted so far, mainly waiting for the market situation. A DMF unit in Jiangshan, Zhejiang Province, was shut down for maintenance in early January for about 30 days. The rest are mostly short-term maintenance and shutdown of DMF plants with small capacity, which has limited impact on market resource supply. In the first half of this year, except for Yuanxing in Inner Mongolia, the unit operating rate of production enterprises was not high, but most of the manufacturers' units were basically stable in operation and normal in delivery, with relatively abundant supply in DMF markets.

From the perspective of demand, at present, the largest downstream of DMF in China is synthetic leather industry. More than 70% of DMF is used in synthetic leather production. However, the current domestic and foreign market demand is not strong, the enterprise cost is rising, the downward pressure of synthetic leather industry continues to increase, the output growth rate dropped from 9.57% in 2011 to 2.58% in 2014, and the export growth rate also continues to decline. Affected by this, at present, many enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and about 20% of them are in the process of being shut down and transferred. Although the 2.58% low-speed growth is a case in a few years, it can not be simply attributed to the turning point of the development of synthetic leather industry, but it undoubtedly shows that the synthetic leather industry is entering a new stage of deep adjustment.

According to the statistics of jinyindao, in 2014, the total annual output of China's DMF production enterprises was 875900 tons, while the apparent consumption was 768400 tons, and the average annual growth rate of demand was lower than 6%. In general, although there is no new DMF capacity to be put on the market in the future, the total capacity of domestic DMF has been seriously surplus at present. Affected by this, except for large-scale production enterprises in the industry, the overall average operating rate of other small and medium-sized DMF manufacturers is not high. The main downstream synthetic leather industry itself is also in the stage of deep adjustment, and the factors such as increasing export resistance, strengthening environmental protection, and the development of new raw material substitutes will cause the total demand of downstream synthetic leather for DMF to be difficult to increase in the future, or even some shrinkage phenomenon. Referring to the traditional trend of DMF market in previous years, and considering the pressure of supply and demand, it is difficult for the market to have a sustained rebound momentum in the second half of the year, and it will continue to look for the bottom in the low volatility.