According to the latest monitoring of Zhongyu information, the domestic chemical industry market this week is full of bruises, and the decline continues to spread. Under the restriction of the traditional demand off-season, the demand is still sluggish, and the chemical industry as a whole is in the low tide of the market. Under the background of the oversupply of crude oil, the trend of international oil price is weak. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar index fell. Although the correlation between the U.S. dollar and commodities has been relatively weak in recent years, it still has a certain negative correlation. The rebound of the U.S. dollar may continue, and the short-term also poses pressure on commodities.

Among the 65 chemical products tested by Zhongyu information this week, 37 varieties fell, accounting for 56.92%. The top three products were acrylonitrile (- 4.35%), propylene oxide (- 4.17%) and diethylene glycol (- 3.23%). Only 11 varieties increased, accounting for 16.92%. The top three products were pure benzene (2.61%), cyclohexanone (2.33%) and glycol (2.22%).

Chemical market growth products (6.19-6.26):

 

                        

Chemical market decline products (6.19-6.26):

 

Product name	地区	6月19日	6月26日	涨跌幅度（元/吨）	百分比（%）
丙烯腈	华东地区	9200	8800	-400	-4.35%
PO	华北地区	10800	10350	-450	-4.17%
二乙二醇	华东地区	6510	6300	-210	-3.23%
苯胺	山东地区	6550	6350	-200	-3.05%
苯酚	华东地区	7000	6800	-200	-2.86%
聚合MDI（上海货）	华东地区	10800	10500	-300	-2.78%
FDY半光75D/36F	华东地区	8500	8300	-200	-2.35%
纯MDI	华东地区	17200	16800	-400	-2.33%
苯酐	华东地区	6800	6650	-150	-2.21%
PET(瓶级)	华东地区	7400	7250	-150	-2.03%
涤纶短纤1.4D	华东地区	7650	7500	-150	-1.96%
硬泡聚醚	华北地区	10300	10100	-200	-1.94%
苯乙烯	华东地区	10550	10350	-200	-1.90%
软泡聚醚	华北地区	11200	11000	-200	-1.79%
一级硬脂酸	江苏地区	6000	5900	-100	-1.67%
异丙醇	华东地区	6250	6150	-100	-1.60%
二氯甲烷	华东地区	3150	3100	-50	-1.59%
丙烯酸一级市场	华东地区	6500	6400	-100	-1.54%
己内酰胺	华东地区	13400	13200	-200	-1.49%
邻苯	华东地区	6950	6850	-100	-1.44%
锦纶切片	华东地区	14500	14300	-200	-1.38%
富马酸	华东地区	3800	3750	-50	-1.32%
己二酸(山东货)	华东地区	7900	7800	-100	-1.27%
DBP	山东地区	7950	7850	-100	-1.26%
丙烯酸丁酯一级市场	华东地区	8300	8200	-100	-1.20%
DOP	华东地区	8350	8250	-100	-1.20%
DOTP	山东地区	8450	8350	-100	-1.18%
DINP	华南地区	8550	8450	-100	-1.17%
DMC	华东地区	4600	4550	-50	-1.09%
丙酮	华东地区	4900	4850	-50	-1.02%
丁二烯	华东地区	10300	10200	-100	-0.97%
乙醇	华东地区	5525	5475	-50	-0.90%
甲苯	华东地区	6025	5975	-50	-0.83%
溶剂二甲苯	华东地区	6150	6100	-50	-0.81%
TDI(上海货)	华东地区	13700	13600	-100	-0.73%
二甲醚	华北地区	3225	3210	-15	-0.47%
异构二甲苯	华东地区	6150	6125	-25	-0.41%

 

 

International crude oil: at present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the international oil market have not improved significantly. Under the influence of the increase in production in some countries, especially in some OPEC member countries, the supply side has remained abundant, while the global economic situation has recovered slowly, resulting in the continued lack of energy demand. Therefore, the current situation of excess supply is still, and will continue to benefit in the future Air oil market. In addition, Greece's debt crisis and Iran's nuclear negotiations are also topics of more concern in the recent market. We believe that Greece's problem is a problem that is hard to be solved. Whether it is to continue to extend its debt or withdraw from the euro zone, it will have a negative impact on the European economy. If Iran's nuclear negotiations make some progress, then western countries will relax their sanctions The increase in oil output has exacerbated concerns about oversupply in the oil market. To sum up, the international oil price is still in a situation of insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the trend of volatility will continue next week, with a slight downward trend likely.

 

The top rising products are as follows:

 

Pure benzene: Sinopec's listing price of pure benzene continued to increase by 100 yuan / ton to 5900 yuan / ton. Due to the high port cost and the intention of middlemen, the shipping price went up and remained firm, but it did not lead to an increase in the purchase volume of downstream manufacturers. In addition to styrene, the downstream derivatives have a poor production profit and weak sales of their own products. In addition, most downstream manufacturers have purchased some raw materials in the early stage, so they are not active in taking goods at present. Although there are many overhauls of the hydrogenated benzene unit, most of the manufacturers have high inventory and slightly positive shipment. After the listing price of Sinopec was increased, the price of hydrogenated benzene did not continue to rise, and the price difference compared with that of petroleum benzene increased, which caused the downstream manufacturers to mainly purchase hydrogenated benzene, and the overall market deadlock remained unchanged. Crude oil and pure benzene are still subject to shock consolidation in the near future, which is hard to play a significant role in promoting the market of pure benzene. In addition, the construction of downstream derivatives is slow in the near future, and the market as a whole lacks information guidance. It is expected that the short-term domestic pure benzene stalemate situation will be difficult to change, and the possibility of prices continuing to rise is low.

Cyclohexanone: Recently, due to two unexpected increases in Sinopec's listing of pure benzene, the firm price confidence of the manufacturers was supported. However, crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene declined at a high level, so many companies still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards future pure benzene. However, this week, the manufacturer still hasn't changed the status of less shipments. Hualu has stopped unexpectedly near the end of the week, so there is no goods for export. Haili also said that there is no volume for export. At present, there are only a small amount of sales in Luxi and Xuyang, but from the perspective of the terminal, the demand performance is poor, and the digestion of the source of goods is slow, so the market push up slowly. By the end of the week, the low price offers of the on-site manufacturers were gradually reduced, the firm price mentality was strong, and the focus of market negotiation was stable at a high level.

Glycol: the delivery at the end of the month has created a wave of delivery market for the market, especially the spot goods. The perfect coordination between the low price and the short supply demand of the cargo holders has made the market focus move up firmly. However, after the delivery at the end of the month, the follow-up downward pressure has increased significantly, the downstream cash flow is in deficit, the just demand is weak, the relevant products have a large space to fall back, and the subsequent pressure of glycol is obvious.

The top falling products are as follows:

Acrylonitrile: the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic acrylonitrile market is still sharp this week. The main factories in East China, North China and Northeast China continue to decline, but the market response is flat, and the downstream buying interest continues to be depressed. At present, most of the acrylonitrile plants in China are in a state of loss. Compared with the cost spread of only around 1000 yuan, some plants in North China have started to reduce production and price protection to avoid further losses. Near the end of the month, domestic factories have introduced the month end settlement price in succession. Market participants take measures to balance the settlement within the month. The market is temporarily stable, but the overall demand is not significantly improved. It is expected that the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation in the later period.

Propylene oxide: this week, the domestic propylene oxide Market opened a new round of decline roulette. In the middle of the week, the price continued to drop by 100 yuan to 10300-10400 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the current price is lower, and the close to 10000 yuan increases the panic of the industry. In the off-season of demand, the overall bulk chemicals market is weak, the domestic propylene oxide Market is more negative upstream and downstream, the cost of propylene and liquid chlorine is weak, the downstream polyether market is sluggish, and the lack of good signals in the market seriously frustrates the future confidence of the industry. In the later period, there were maintenance plans for the propylene oxide plant, and the manufacturer reduced the load, limited production and guaranteed price. However, in the short term, the action force on the propylene oxide plant was slightly insufficient, and the rigid pull up range would not be too large. The upward support was weak, and the market lacked direction guidance. The industry cautiously watched and followed the market passively.

Diethylene glycol: the market of diethylene glycol has been in a downturn, falling to 6300 yuan / ton from 6510 yuan / ton in East China at the end of last week, with a drop of 210 yuan / ton or 3.23%. The low end of the market fell to 6250 yuan / ton, and diethylene glycol or the weak continued to adjust, reaching a new low for two years. The main reason for the increase in the callback of diethylene glycol in this wave is that, on the one hand, the imbalance between supply and demand, on the other hand, the lack of capital inflow, both of which cause the market people's mentality to weaken, the market entry will be reduced actively under the support of the lack of vision, and the downstream industry will enter the traditional off-season in June. With the investment and construction of the downstream industry being cooled down by the real estate sector, the end consumer market will be in a downturn, unsaturated resin and FRP enterprises have low starting load and do not build inventory. Some regions attach great importance to green environmental protection, and the surrounding areas also maintain low construction load. Diethylene glycol continued to decline amid rising inventories and weak demand.

Zhongyu view: data released by HSBC on June 23 showed that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) initially stood at 49.6, a three-month high, but still below the 50 boom and bust line. In the first ten days of June, manufacturing activity was still shrinking, but the decline in growth momentum was further narrowed, and in the short term, domestic economic weakness was mainly stabilized. However, considering that the demand of the real economy is still very weak, the improvement space of external demand is limited, the investment growth rate is also slowing down gradually, the foundation of economic stabilization is still not solid, and the downside risk is still not eliminated, it is expected that the easing policy will increase in the future. With the expectation of Fed's interest rate hike and the rebound of economy in the second quarter, there is a high probability that the US dollar index will strengthen, which will cause the international commodity price to enter the falling range again, the overall chemical market is difficult to be optimistic, and the weak market situation may be maintained.