Andrew Lee fagg, head of Nexant Asia, pointed out that countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam have strong growth potential in terms of per capita consumption of polyolefins, because these countries have a low starting point and the demand for polyolefins is growing slowly.
Kambiz mirkarimi, business manager of jam Petrochemical Company in Iran, said that domestic petrochemical production in Iran has more than doubled in the past five years, from 7.9 million tons in 2009 to 16.1 million tons in 2014. However, Iran's export of petrochemical products is also growing in the same period. Once the international sanctions are lifted, the export of petrochemical products will further increase. In order to meet the continuous expansion of polyolefin resin export demand, Iran will add 4.3 million tons / year of polyethylene capacity and 750000 tons / year of polypropylene capacity in the next three years.
Frank ye, partner of chem consulting, analyzed the PVC market in Asia, reminded the insiders to pay special attention to the changes in the Chinese market, and pointed out that the price of PVC in China is mainly determined by the price of coal, while the crude oil price is not closely related to the price of PVC. At present, China's PVC supply surplus is about 10%, so Chinese PVC producers will look for export opportunities.
Rajen udeshi, President of polyester chain of India Xincheng industry, reported the situation of pet and polyester chain. There is a huge space for pet consumption growth in India in the future. At present, the per capita consumption of pet in India is only 0.55kg per year, far lower than the global average of 2.63kg. Rajen udeshi predicted that water and carbonated soft drink packaging will also be the main driving force of global pet demand in the next five years. It is expected that the market demand of these two types of products will increase by 7% and 5% respectively in the future.
The Sixth Asian petrochemical conference of chemorbis was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on June 10. The Asian plastics industry gathered at this meeting to discuss the future changes in the Asian plastics market. It is believed that as the number of middle-class consumers increases, the demand will increase accordingly. The supply and demand of polyolefin tends to balance, and the demand for polyester gradually increases. The potential of plastic market in Asia is great in the future.
Akbarmd. Tayoob, CEO of pertronas chemical marketing, points out that by 2030, the number of middle-class people in Asia is expected to reach 5 billion. The growth of this class will directly promote the rapid growth of plastic demand.
He also analyzed the challenges and opportunities faced by ASEAN petrochemical enterprises. He said that the main problems faced by ASEAN's petrochemical producers are high cost of raw materials, lack of professionals and more stringent regulations. But at the same time, the advantages of ASEAN petrochemical producers are also obvious, and the demand for petrochemical products in emerging Asian markets will continue to grow rapidly in the coming decades.
Necmettin kaymaz, chief project officer, investment support and promotion agency of Turkey, analyzed the importance of emerging economies in future economic growth. He pointed out that in the next five years, 70% of global economic growth will come from emerging and developing economies, especially the emerging middle class in Asia, which will be the main driver of global GDP growth in the next five years.
Chen Weili, research analyst of olefin and polyolefin business of woodmackenzie Chemical Co., Ltd., analyzed that in the future, China's ethylene and its derivatives will continue to rely heavily on imports, and Asian petrochemical producers will continue to be impacted by the superior regions of raw materials, such as North America, and strive to remain competitive.
Mazlan Razak, a management consultant of Nexant Asia, a famous consulting firm, predicted that with a large number of new ethylene projects being put into production in North America, the export of polyethylene resin in North America will double by 2020. In 2014, the total export of polyethylene in North America will be 1 million tons. In the future, the United States will become the main import place of polyethylene resin in Asian market. However, if crude oil prices remain low, the cost advantage of North American producers will be weakened.
Mark mirosevic sorgo, general manager of quincanon Asia Pte limited, a shipping brokerage, points out that ethylene transportation requires special loading equipment. The construction cost of ethylene loading vessel is about 10% higher than that of normal transport vessel. Iran has invested 60 billion US dollars to build ethylene shipping ports and ships under the environment of international sanctions. If international sanctions are lifted, Iran will become an important supplier and exporter of ethylene in the world.
As for propylene supply, it is predicted that Asia's propylene market may face oversupply due to the large-scale construction of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) production capacity at present. Based on this, it is predicted that the price of propylene in the Asian market will be low relative to that of ethylene in the future.
