Since the second half of 2014, the domestic adipic acid market has seen an obvious downward trend. In 2015, the market continued to operate at a low level. After the middle and late May, the adipic acid market ushered in a new round of decline. According to the estimation of jinyindao, the average price of adipic acid in East China, the main market, fell from 8550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 7325 yuan / ton on July 23, with a decrease of 1225 yuan / ton, or - 14.32%. At present, the price of adipic acid in domestic market has reached the low point in recent years, and it is still hard to say the bottom. There are several factors that influence the price.

Peripheral factors: in late May, due to the interweaving of multi air forces, international oil prices fell in shock. Driven by the gradual improvement of economic data in the United States, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike this year are rising again. Investors began to make a large number of long dollars, which pushed the dollar up. However, the stronger US dollar exchange rate means that investors outside the US dollar area are less attractive to us dollar denominated commodity futures, resulting in successive declines in international oil prices. As of July 22, U.S. crude oil futures fell sharply due to the fall of global stock market and the unexpected large increase of U.S. crude oil inventory, which is the first time since April 2 that it has fallen below the $50 / barrel threshold. The decline of international oil price depresses the market mentality of domestic chemical industry and opens up the downward space of chemical products.

Cost factor: affected by international crude oil and a variety of negative factors, the upstream raw material pure benzene market is also in a downward trend in recent months. According to the statistics of jinyindao, in May, the listed price of pure benzene SINOPEC enterprises dropped by 1200 yuan / ton, and the market dropped by 1000 yuan / ton. Although there was a certain rebound in June, it failed to last. Until July, the decline of pure benzene enterprises temporarily reached 700 yuan / ton, and the listing price was reported at 5200 yuan / ton. The sharp decline of raw material pure benzene in the short term, as well as the current low level of raw material price, makes the support of adipic acid cost surface weakening. Although in the process of raw material decline, the profit space of adipic acid manufacturers has been temporarily enlarged. However, the lower purchasing intention is low, and there is a falling mentality, which makes the adipic acid price keep up with the upper decline.

Supply and demand factors: at present, the average operating rate of domestic adipic acid production enterprises is 60-70%, and some manufacturers mostly maintain single line production to ease the delivery pressure. Although the 70000 T / a adipic acid plant of Shandong yangcoal is still in the state of shutdown recently, a 70000 T / a production line of Liaoyang Petrochemical Company has been restarted and reached full load operation, which will increase the overall supply pressure of the market. On the other hand, in the downstream industry, after the Spring Festival in 2015, the downstream slurry and sole stock solution factories resumed operation, most of the unit load can reach 60-70%. But after June, as the weather gradually turned hot, the industry off-season hit. The unit operating rate of downstream manufacturers has gradually declined to 40-50%, some of which are less than 30%. Some small and medium-sized factories have even shut down for a short time. It can be seen from the operating rate of manufacturers of both sides of supply and demand that the situation of domestic adipic acid market oversupply becomes more and more prominent in the off-season. However, in recent months, the export volume of adipic acid market of nearly 16000 tons per month has not alleviated the sales pressure in the domestic market.

In general, the key word of domestic adipic acid Market in the near future is "low", the price of upstream raw material pure benzene is relatively low, the downstream purchase demand is also at the lowest in the off-season, and the market price of adipic acid is at the low level in recent years. Although some adipic acid traders put their hope of stopping the market decline in the near future on the support of the settlement price of the main manufacturers this month, considering that the downstream is still indifferent to the current market price, the sentiment of waiting for decline continues. Due to the lack of actual trading volume and the above negative factors, the adipic acid market will hit a new low in the year, or break through the 7000 yuan / ton threshold.